Economy may fall by 25 percent in current financial year: economist Arun Kumar

 Economist Arun Kumar said that the country's economic growth is not improving as fast as the government is showing. The RBI estimates that the country's economy will decline by 7.5 percent in this financial year, while the National Statistics Office has forecast a decline of 7.7 percent.

  

New Delhi: The country's famous economist Arun Kumar believes that contrary to the government's claim, the economy is not improving much faster. Kumar said that the economy may decline by 25 percent in the current financial year. Kumar said that the budget estimate has gone completely out of the scope due to the large fall in gross domestic product (GDP) during the current financial year and the budget needs to be corrected. Kumar said in an interview, 'The country's economic growth is not improving as fast as the government is showing. The situation in the unorganized sector has not improved and some important parts of the services sector have also not recovered. He said, 'According to my analysis the Indian economy will decline by 25 percent in the current financial year 2020-21. Only essential goods were produced during the lockdown in April-May. Even the agricultural sector did not grow. 

 

'The Reserve Bank of India estimates that the Indian economy will decline by 7.5 percent in the current financial year. At the same time, the National Statistics Office (NSO) has forecast a 7.7 percent decline in the economy. Kumar, a former professor of economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University, said that the GDP documents provided by the government for the quarters of April-June and July-September also said that these figures would be revised later. He said that India's fiscal deficit will be higher than last year. The fiscal deficit of the states will also remain at a high level. He said that the disinvestment revenue will also be less. Tax and non-tax revenue will also decrease. Kumar said that India's economic revival will depend on many factors. 'How fast vaccination takes place and how fast people are able to return to their work.' He said, 'We will not reach the production level of 2019 in 2021. Maybe after vaccination in 2022, we will be able to achieve the level of  production in 2019. ' The economist said that the growth rate in the coming years will be good due to the lower base effect, but the production will be less than in 2019. Asked whether the government should relax the fiscal deficit target in the upcoming budget, Kumar said, "It has been argued since July that the government should allow the fiscal deficit to increase and spend more and the unorganized sector and Money should be given in rural areas. 

    

  

  

 

(With input from news agency language)

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