For
nearly five months, both the US and the World have been discussing the
US presidential election. All eyes have been focused on President Trump
as everyone is waiting to see whether he will accept defeat and help
President-elect Joe Biden's transition team.
While Biden has increased his popular vote share to 78 million and therefore the number of delegates to 306, we will see that Trump's legal war doesn't seem realistic, especially after Biden won Georgia and Pennsylvania, which are critical states.
In addition, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), operating under the US Department of Homeland Security , made a politician statement describing "the elections persisted November 3 because the most reliable elections in US history."
The majority of individuals in Turkey believe Turkey-US relations are going to be
no better with Biden in office. However, all of the issues stemming
from Trump's term still exist and have not been resolved yet.
When
President-elect Biden takes office on January 20, we should not expect
him to move against Turkey right away. President-elect Biden and his
foreign policy team will not break ties with Ankara due to Turkey’s NATO
membership and its strategic position. Both NATO allies might seek
better communication avenues to unravel their issues through diplomacy.
Among
Biden's priorities, number one is the fight against Covid-19. With the
number of daily deaths reaching 1,100 and daily case numbers reaching
130,000, the US is well into the second wave.
In fact, several cities
have reinstated the "Stay-At-Home" rule. Biden has already started
working by establishing a scientific committee consisting of 13 members.
Naturally, even though Trump is not happy, he has added good news about
the vaccine as a plus for his administration.
The second issue
related to Covid-19 will be recovering the economy. Even though the rate
of unemployment has gone down by 6.9 percent, there is a sense of
confidence that this rate will rise again. Biden is predicted to ask Congress to start out performing on a replacement stimulus package urgently.
The
area of priority is polarisation and race relations. The US under a
Trump administration has been a deeply polarised place exacerbated
further by Donald Trump's divisive statements and therefore the killing of George Flory. Biden, on the opposite hand, has signalled that he wants to unify the country.
Biden
will most certainly undo Trump's policies on a lot of these issues,
especially with regards to healthcare, immigration, and education.
However, a Republican majority in the Senate will cripple Biden.
The bottom line is that Biden features a lot on his plate and Turkey isn't high thereon list of priorities.
What about foreign policy?
Biden will face extraordinary policy challenges from Russia and China to North Korea and Iran, but he has said indicated he will attempt to rebuild alliances and restore trust as a priority.
Through
a globalist's perspective, he will be working closely with NATO, the
European Union, and other international organisations. The statement by
Michael Carpenter, an advisor to Biden, that the US will put pressure on
Turkey, not only unilaterally but also by calling on its allies to do
the same, is a sign of the type of policy they're going to implement.
Of
course, while it is expected that there will be a return to the
policies of the Obama era with regard to the Middle East and a softening
of the stance towards Iran, there are also signals that the withdrawal
of troops from Afghanistan will continue and that there may be problems
with Saudi Arabia, who are being blamed for the war in Yemen and are
responsible for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi.
Apart from that, Biden also wants a two-state solution to the tensions between Israel and Palestine, albeit it'd make an enemy out of Netanyahu.
Many
names from the Biden team are familiar with Turkey. In particular,
Anthony Blinken, the head of the Biden campaign's foreign policy
initiatives, is one of those most familiar with Turkey. Other names
mentioned for Department of State are William Burns, Susan Rice, Chris
Coons, Chris Murphy.
We might see a Female Secretary of Defense in
the Biden-Harris Administration, and some names floating around are
Tammy Duckworth and Michele Flournoy. Many people who are experts on
Turkey from the think factory world on the brink of the Democratic Party , like the Atlantic Council and therefore the Center for American Progress, will also likely take up positions within the White House.
Ron
Klain, officially announced by Biden as the White House Chief of Staff,
also knows Turkey well. Indeed, he is one of the important names who
worked in the White House during the vice-presidential terms of both
Biden and Al Gore.
What is clear here is that the clashes and
conflicts with Turkey would have been unavoidable even if Trump had won,
and it seems that it will continue with Biden, as well. Several of the present issues like the US alliance with the YPG/PKK terror group, the S400 affect Russia, and therefore the conflict of interest within the eastern Mediterranean will be carried over into Biden's term.
What is significant here is how the trust are going to be restored and thru
what compromises. It requires hard work to revert back to open
communication channels and, most importantly, change how Turkey is
perceived in the US
0 Comments